Why it’s going to take real games to figure out the Maple Leafs’ goaltending situation

Ten days to go. Still.
We can pretty much agree the NHL pre-season has never been as meaningless as it is now. Injuries to high-profile veterans like Drew Doughty and Patrik Laine, sidelined for an indeterminate period of time Saturday night by a Maple Leafs forward with zero chance of making the team, have only further underlined this waste of time the NHL insists upon every year.
Sure, a weak team like Montreal, a long shot to make the playoffs, has loads of young players to evaluate. But contracts still speak louder than performance in most cases, and most teams pretty much know their roster before training camp starts. The number of players who are surprise starters for one of the 32 clubs when the games that matter commence are few and far between.
It’s a nice little money-making process for the league, however, a chance to charge regular-season prices for games that often include 50 per cent non-NHL talent. So it will continue until perhaps the next collective bargaining period when the union finally wakes up and demands an end to this nonsense.
Just think. The season could have started two weeks ago, and maybe ended by the first of June or even late May.
For the Leafs, the pre-season has included knocks to William Nylander, Auston Matthews and John Tavares, who all should be healed by the season opener. Watching Toronto wannabe Cedric Pare take out Laine with an accidental but reckless knee-on-knee hit should make head coach Craig Berube and GM Brad Treliving disinclined to play any of the team’s stars the rest of the way. There is nothing to be gained.
But, you might say, what about Nick Robertson? What about the two goals he has scored in the past three games, including two on Saturday night?
Folks, Robertson isn’t doing anything Leaf management didn’t know he could do. What they don’t know is how much of a 200-foot player he can be on a consistent basis, and what teammates he might complement in order to grab a regular lineup spot. You need regular-season competition to find answers to those questions, not pre-season scrimmages.
With Fraser Minten missing camp, the most notable youngster with a shot to make it would be Easton Cowan. He played his fourth game in Montreal, but doesn’t quite look ready to crack a talented Leafs forward group. A trip back to London looms.
The biggest mystery for the Leafs, as it was during the off-season, is their goaltending. An optimist might say they have some depth with Joseph Woll, Anthony Stolarz, Matt Murray and Dennis Hildeby, who looked NHL-ready on Saturday, albeit against a Montreal team that is one of the weakest offensive groups in the NHL.
A pessimist, on the other hand, would suggest the Leafs have four, which means they don’t have one. They don’t have anything definite between the pipes at this point.
The two with the most upside are Woll and Hildeby. Woll, however, has shown no ability to stay healthy for a sustained period of time. The six-foot-seven Hildeby, meanwhile, doesn’t need waivers to go to the minors, so that’s likely where he’ll be headed until injuries create an opportunity for him.
Stolarz played a backup role for the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers last season, which enhanced his value. But he is 30 years old and has never played more than 28 games in an NHL season.
Murray is one of the inspiring stories of camp as he battles his way back from injury. If Montreal was hoping Laine could reclaim his status as a marquee NHLer, Toronto is hoping Murray might approximate something of the goalie he was in Pittsburgh seven years ago when he won a pair of Stanley Cup rings.
So who will start the season opener for the Leafs? Who will be the starter at the beginning of December? At the beginning of April?
The Leafs don’t need exhibition games to figure this out. They need time and competitive games. Hildeby will get that with the Marlies, and Woll, if healthy, likely will get first shot at being the starter.
Berube has some experience coaching through this kind of scenario. When the St. Louis Blues won the Stanley Cup in 2019, Jake Allen started the most games in the regular season, but was gradually unseated by Jordan Binnington, who spent part of the season in the minors but got on a roll in the NHL post-season.
Berube also knows Adin Hill outlasted four goalies to emerge as the starter for the Vegas Golden Knights en route to the Cup in 2023. These kinds of situations aren’t unusual any more for teams that are contenders, and despite their poor playoff record of the past seven years, the Leafs believe they are contenders.
So this is still the main lineup element the Leafs need to work out, and there are not going to be any definitive answers made clear after the exhibition season. The faster Berube gets to the games that matter, the faster he can figure this out.